A BBC/ComRes survey of A-level students in England has found that higher university fees are putting off one in ten would-be applicants, but that over half will probably still go to university.
UCAS has reported a nine per cent drop in applications.
Gill Wyness, a higher education researcher at the think tank CentreForum, commented:
“Actions speak louder than words. We cannot accurately predict the future behaviour of A-level students, which is why the survey should be treated with caution.
“Similarly, today UCAS figures do not indicate a meltdown in demand for higher education, as some newspapers have suggested.”
CentreForum believes it is too early to link the increase in tuition fees to a drop in university applications.
There were a record number of applications for university last year. Applications were up by five per cent in 2011, as students who would normally have deferred entry for a year or more, decided to apply early to avoid the fee increase in 2012.
This means the pool of students able to apply is far smaller this year.
Applications have followed the same pattern during previous fee increases in 1998 and 2006. They tend to increase sharply the year before the fee increase, and then drop by a similar magnitude in the year of the fee increase.
In both cases, applications recovered to previous levels a year later.
The UCAS figures are highly preliminary, with only 26 out of 131 universities in England releasing data. In addition, the figures include applications for the 15 October deadline which only applies to those wishing to study at Oxford and Cambridge or for any medicine, dentistry and veterinary degree. While some applications for other universities were also submitted to UCAS, the figures cover only a small proportion of the total pool of applications.
Students may be thinking more carefully about which course and subject are best for them, in the light of the new fee regime.
Fee loan repayments are wholly dependent on the future earnings of graduates. Students may want to research more carefully future earnings and employment prospects of different courses before they submit their application.
Tags: bbc, students, tuition fees, UCAS
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